Oscar Pick's went 20 of 24!

And the winner is.... Ronn Burner. Ok, I didn't win EVERY Oscar Pool I entered but I did win a few, including the Oscar Party I was attending at the time. So for bragging rights alone that was excellent! My official ballot was posted earlier and the results were basically as expected.

I missed SOUND MIXING, it was one of two and I guessed wrong although I guessed correctly in the same debate in SOUND EDITING, ANIMATED SHORT (who didn't?), DOCUMENTARY SHORT (anyone's guess) and the biggie being LEAD ACTOR as I was giving Mickey Rourke the love when the Academy decided to give Sean Penn his second Oscar in 5 years.

The winning pick as it turns out on my ballot was a late switch to "Departures" over "Waltz with Bashir" in the FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM category. Massive industry buzz began over "Departures" and since that category requires proof that the voter actually must view the film. That switch was the difference in my winning 3 pools and tying another... I did manage to get whooped in the Awards Daily and In Contention pools but those guys are so much smarter than those in the parties I attended.

All in all, I'm very satisfied. The best I could have possibly done is 21 out of 24 by going with Penn but my hear wanted Rourke so bad and I would have voted for him so I feel good about sticking with him.

FINAL Picks - 81st Academy Awards

Regrettably there are still a few films that I did not get the pleasure of seeing which includes all of the Nominees in the short categories as well as "Man on Wire" being the only Documentary I saw and "Waltz with Bashir" being the only Foreign film. I also missed "Rachel Getting Married", "Happy-Go-Lucky" and "In Bruges". Not to bad actually considering the high number of films in each of the 24 categories but still, the fact remains it seems absurd to make predictions and judgments on a piece of art that you never even watched. Keep in mind, I seek out each nominated film and TRY to see every single one of them. I'm not so sure I can say the same thing about the Academy voters thus rendering skewed ballots based on hear say and the Hollywood Hype Machine. Based on that I will offer a "Will Win", which is my predicted winner, and a "Should Win" category. Obviously the "Should Win" would be who would get my vote if I had the privilege of doing so.

BEST PICTURE
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Pretty much a lock at this point.

DIRECTING
Will Win - Danny Boyle - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - Danny Boyle - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Definitely a lock at this point.

LEADING ACTOR
Will Win - Mickey Rourke - "The Wrestler"
Should Win - Mickey Rourke - "The Wrestler"

This is a close race... it seriously could go either way but based on the fact that Sean Penn just won a statue in 2003 for "Mystic River" makes it pretty unlikely that he'll win again so quickly. The flip side is the great performances of Biopic films are almost always rewarded. Just ask Joaquin Phoenix (Johnny Cash), Reese Witherspoon (June Carter), Jamie Foxx (Ray Charles), Cate Blanchett (Katherine Hepburn), Forest Whitaker (Idi Amin) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Truman Capote). I think you see my point.

LEADING ACTRESS
Will Win - Kate Winslet - "The Reader"
Should Win - Melissa Leo - "Frozen River"

Kate Winslet is 0-5 and she is consistently great thus making it unlikely she will be overlooked again. Melissa Leo is the very deserving Darkhorse and let's not forget that the great Meryl Streep is lurking in the shadows and could easily steal this award from both of the aforementioned ladies. I do think anyone but Winslet is a longshot though.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win - Heath Ledger - "The Dark Knight"
Should Win - "Heath Ledger - "The Dark Knight"

This might be the biggest lock in the history of the Academy Awards AND rightfully so. Could you imagine what would happen if anyone else won? Or better yet, could you imagine being the Actor that did win having to go and accept this award in front of a furious and hostile crowd. Luckily nobody will have to endure that. Heath wins and the place is going to erupt with emotion when he does.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win - Penelope Cruz - "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Should Win - Marisa Tomei - "The Wrestler"

This is really a tough call actually. It appears that most people expect Cruz to win but this category is well known for it's surprises. My heart is pulling for Marisa Tomei to get recognized for her brave work in "The Wrestler" but if anyone is going to be the Penelope buster I expect it to be Viola Davis from "Doubt". Don't get me wrong, Cruz stole every scene she was in and I thought she was amazing but my vote would have gone to Tomei. This is a great race yet again this year.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Another lock of the evening.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win - "Milk"
Should Win - "Milk"

Many pundits are predicting a "Milk" victory but claiming it is undeserving and sort of a color-by-number structured screenplay while "Wall-E" is the true best original screenplay of the year. I'm not so sure I agree. Besides, "Wall-E" is a lock for a statue with the Animated Feature and "Milk" can't go home empty handed, can it? I say no.

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win - "Wall-E"
Should Win - "Wall-E"

Stone cold lock.

ART DIRECTION
Will Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

With 13 nominations in total "Benjamin Button" very well may get a the 0-13 snub but I think it will get rewarded here. It's a tough category being in with "The Dark Knight" and "The Duchess" but I think it will prevail.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "The Dark Knight"

"Slumdog" is going to win this prize but "The Dark Knight" was so visually stunning I would love to see it sneak in for the win.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

With the innovative visuals of Brad Pitt aging backwards it's very deserving of this award and most experts believe it will take it although "The Dark Knight" is also getting a lot of love.

FILM EDITING
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Looking more and more like another lock for "Slumdog Millionaire" with "Benjamin Button" a distant second.

MAKEUP
Will Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Anytime you can capture the aging process on film and pull it off masterfully then you deserve the recognition for it. Brad Pitt gets younger while Cate Blanchett and everyone else ages. It's just awesome work.

COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win - "The Duchess"
Should Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Elizabethan period pieces always seem to win this category and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" covers so many years that I think it probably deserves the nod. I doubt it will get it though.

FOREIGN FILM
Will Win - "Departures"
Should Win - "Waltz with Bashir"

All the experts seem to think "Waltz with Bashir" is the front-runner but the buzz around the industry is very strong for "The Class" and more recently it sounds like "Departures" could slide in for the upset. I've only see "Waltz" so I can't really go of anything more than all the buzz and reading I've done on the category. (UPDATE: It's 1:40 pm on Saturday the 21st and I'm officially going out on a limb and selecting "Departures" for the upset win. This coming after I just discovered that this is one category that each voter MUST PROVE that they seen each of the nominees. Based on that it sounds like the buzz for "Departures" is very very good. It's still a reach but what the hell, you have to take chances to win these things and I can guarantee that there will be surprises come tomorrow night. That much is a certainty.)

DOCUMENTARY
Will Win - "Man on Wire"
Should Win - "Man on Wire"

Again, this is the only film in the category I actually saw but according to the pundits the only chance at upset is "Trouble the Water".

SOUND EDITING
Will Win - "The Dark Knight"
Should Win - "The Dark Knight"

Historically speaking this award goes to the loudest film and "The Dark Knight" is just that but the fear here is if "Slumdog Millionaire" is so well loved that it gets the sweep thus stealing the sound categories from "The Dark Knight". I wouldn't be shocked if either wins but I'll stick with the "loudest movie of the year" theory as well as they have to reward this blockbuster in some way other than Heath Ledger. The film deserves 3 or 4 statues.

SOUND MIXING
Will Win - "The Dark Knight"
Should Win - "The Dark Knight"

See above. Usually the same film wins both categories.

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" poses a real threat I think based on the numerous arrangements throughout. It sounds great but then again, so did "Slumdog Millionaire" and it just seems to resonate more for me.

ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win - "Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire"

It's the only song that sticks with you, in fact, it's hard to shake. That has to count for something. Besides, the experts all say it's going to win so who am I to argue?

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win - "The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306"
Should Win - ?

Seems to be the one getting most of the attention but this category is truly up for grabs with "The Conscience of Nhem En" and "Smile Pinki" also getting a lot of praise.

ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win - "Presto"
Should Win- ?

Made by Pixar, if that even matters, but it seems to be getting the love more than the rest.

LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win - "Toyland"
Should Win - ?

Only "The Pig" stands in the way here according to the hype.

Nomination Results

As expected there were some misses, some with validity, others not so much...

Best Picture (4 out of 5)
I'm not surprised in the least that "The Dark Knight" didn't get a nom here hence my listing it 5th, the fact that "The Reader" was the film to take it's place is absolutely mind boggling! "The Wrestler" got screwed, period. Mark my words, "The Wrestler" will go down in history as an amazing piece of cinema in every aspect while "The Reader" will fall into relative obscurity.

Director (4 out of 5)
Dammit if "The Reader" didn't just come in and screw over "The Dark Knight" yet again AND "The Wrestler". This just pisses me off and once again proves that the Academy is nothing more than 6,000 elderly prudes that just don't get it. Christopher Nolan did an amazing job with "The Dark Knight" and it's visually stunning. Darren Aronofsky's work on "The Wrestler" is simply heartbreaking, yet beautiful.

Actor (4 out of 5)
Not a surprise Richard Jenkins gets the nom, he deserved it. I just left him off expecting Brad Pitt to get one for the huge hype that was surrounding "Benjamin Button" thus leaving Clint Eastwood off the list, which I did find surprising.

Actress (3 out of 5)
No argument with Angelina Jolie, deservedly so, taking the place of my last 5th selection, Sally Hawkins. The real shocker comes with, not the selection of Kate Winslet, but being nominated for "The Reader" as opposed to "Revolutionary Road." Talk about monkey wrench! "The Reader" was a supporting role, or so I thought hence my predicting here to get a nom in THAT category. That sucks since I had Winslet chalked up for a Lead nom here but for the other film, so I can't count it as a correct prediction, because it wasn't. Hmmm... what the hell do I know?

Supporting Actor (4 out of 5)
Really not a shocker here, Michael Shannon was steam rolling his way to a nomination but I just thought Dev Patel and James Franco were more deserving, personally.

Supporting Actress (4 out of 5)
Well, obviously the monkey wrench that is Kate Winslet screwed me here thus thrusting my alternate selection of Amy Adams for "Doubt" into the mix.

Original Screenplay (2 out of 5)
I was bound to butcher one category and here it is with only "Milk" and "Wall-E" collecting nominations. I did at least get "Happy-Go-Lucky" as an alternate selection somewhat easing the sting. "In Bruges" and "Frozen River" were excellent films and deserve the recognition but I really just like "The Wrestler" and "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" better.

Adapted Screenplay (4 out of 5)
Once again "The Reader" sneaks in thus knocking "The Dark Knight" to the curb. And once again, I do not agree.

The final tally is a pretty embarrassing 29 out of 40, my worst in all my years. I do think that is a good sign though, actually who am I kidding... those taking home the Statuette on Sunday, February 22nd are already etched in stone, right? I'll post my final predictions in every category very soon!

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

As is the case every year, I'm bound to have a few wrong but I don't have a clue where they could be. A couple of the deserving darkhorse's are sure to hit but outside of that the only possibilities of a surprising nomination that I can envision are Happy-Go-Lucky for Original Screenplay or Cate Blanchett for Actress, simply because she is so beloved by the Academy. I'm sticking to my guns though and my Nomination predictions are in order from strongest to weakest with the darkhorse taking the place of the fifth listed Nomination should it win.

Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight

Deserving Darkhorse:
The Wrestler

Director
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

Deserving Darkhorse:
Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler

Actor
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Sean Penn - Milk
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Brad Pitt - Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Deserving Darkhorse:
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor

Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky

Deserving Darkhorse:
Angelina Jolie - Changeling

Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire

Deserving Darkhorse:
James Franco - Milk

Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Taraji P. Henson - Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Viola Davis - Doubt

Deserving Darkhorse:
Amy Adams - Doubt

Original Screenplay
Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Robert D. Siegel - The Wrestler
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon - WALL - E
Woody Allen - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Jenny Lumet - Rachel Getting Married

Deserving Darkhorse:
Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky

Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Eric Roth - Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight

Deserving Darkhorse:
Justin Haythe - Revolutionary Road