Regrettably there are still a few films that I did not get the pleasure of seeing which includes all of the Nominees in the short categories as well as "Man on Wire" being the only Documentary I saw and "Waltz with Bashir" being the only Foreign film. I also missed "Rachel Getting Married", "Happy-Go-Lucky" and "In Bruges". Not to bad actually considering the high number of films in each of the 24 categories but still, the fact remains it seems absurd to make predictions and judgments on a piece of art that you never even watched. Keep in mind, I seek out each nominated film and TRY to see every single one of them. I'm not so sure I can say the same thing about the Academy voters thus rendering skewed ballots based on hear say and the Hollywood Hype Machine. Based on that I will offer a "Will Win", which is my predicted winner, and a "Should Win" category. Obviously the "Should Win" would be who would get my vote if I had the privilege of doing so.
BEST PICTURE
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Pretty much a lock at this point.
DIRECTING
Will Win - Danny Boyle - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - Danny Boyle - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Definitely a lock at this point.
LEADING ACTOR
Will Win - Mickey Rourke - "The Wrestler"
Should Win - Mickey Rourke - "The Wrestler"
This is a close race... it seriously could go either way but based on the fact that Sean Penn just won a statue in 2003 for "Mystic River" makes it pretty unlikely that he'll win again so quickly. The flip side is the great performances of Biopic films are almost always rewarded. Just ask Joaquin Phoenix (Johnny Cash), Reese Witherspoon (June Carter), Jamie Foxx (Ray Charles), Cate Blanchett (Katherine Hepburn), Forest Whitaker (Idi Amin) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Truman Capote). I think you see my point.
LEADING ACTRESS
Will Win - Kate Winslet - "The Reader"
Should Win - Melissa Leo - "Frozen River"
Kate Winslet is 0-5 and she is consistently great thus making it unlikely she will be overlooked again. Melissa Leo is the very deserving Darkhorse and let's not forget that the great Meryl Streep is lurking in the shadows and could easily steal this award from both of the aforementioned ladies. I do think anyone but Winslet is a longshot though.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win - Heath Ledger - "The Dark Knight"
Should Win - "Heath Ledger - "The Dark Knight"
This might be the biggest lock in the history of the Academy Awards AND rightfully so. Could you imagine what would happen if anyone else won? Or better yet, could you imagine being the Actor that did win having to go and accept this award in front of a furious and hostile crowd. Luckily nobody will have to endure that. Heath wins and the place is going to erupt with emotion when he does.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win - Penelope Cruz - "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Should Win - Marisa Tomei - "The Wrestler"
This is really a tough call actually. It appears that most people expect Cruz to win but this category is well known for it's surprises. My heart is pulling for Marisa Tomei to get recognized for her brave work in "The Wrestler" but if anyone is going to be the Penelope buster I expect it to be Viola Davis from "Doubt". Don't get me wrong, Cruz stole every scene she was in and I thought she was amazing but my vote would have gone to Tomei. This is a great race yet again this year.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Another lock of the evening.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win - "Milk"
Should Win - "Milk"
Many pundits are predicting a "Milk" victory but claiming it is undeserving and sort of a color-by-number structured screenplay while "Wall-E" is the true best original screenplay of the year. I'm not so sure I agree. Besides, "Wall-E" is a lock for a statue with the Animated Feature and "Milk" can't go home empty handed, can it? I say no.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win - "Wall-E"
Should Win - "Wall-E"
Stone cold lock.
ART DIRECTION
Will Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
With 13 nominations in total "Benjamin Button" very well may get a the 0-13 snub but I think it will get rewarded here. It's a tough category being in with "The Dark Knight" and "The Duchess" but I think it will prevail.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "The Dark Knight"
"Slumdog" is going to win this prize but "The Dark Knight" was so visually stunning I would love to see it sneak in for the win.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
With the innovative visuals of Brad Pitt aging backwards it's very deserving of this award and most experts believe it will take it although "The Dark Knight" is also getting a lot of love.
FILM EDITING
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Looking more and more like another lock for "Slumdog Millionaire" with "Benjamin Button" a distant second.
MAKEUP
Will Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Anytime you can capture the aging process on film and pull it off masterfully then you deserve the recognition for it. Brad Pitt gets younger while Cate Blanchett and everyone else ages. It's just awesome work.
COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win - "The Duchess"
Should Win - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Elizabethan period pieces always seem to win this category and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" covers so many years that I think it probably deserves the nod. I doubt it will get it though.
FOREIGN FILM
Will Win - "Departures"
Should Win - "Waltz with Bashir"
All the experts seem to think "Waltz with Bashir" is the front-runner but the buzz around the industry is very strong for "The Class" and more recently it sounds like "Departures" could slide in for the upset. I've only see "Waltz" so I can't really go of anything more than all the buzz and reading I've done on the category. (UPDATE: It's 1:40 pm on Saturday the 21st and I'm officially going out on a limb and selecting "Departures" for the upset win. This coming after I just discovered that this is one category that each voter MUST PROVE that they seen each of the nominees. Based on that it sounds like the buzz for "Departures" is very very good. It's still a reach but what the hell, you have to take chances to win these things and I can guarantee that there will be surprises come tomorrow night. That much is a certainty.)
DOCUMENTARY
Will Win - "Man on Wire"
Should Win - "Man on Wire"
Again, this is the only film in the category I actually saw but according to the pundits the only chance at upset is "Trouble the Water".
SOUND EDITING
Will Win - "The Dark Knight"
Should Win - "The Dark Knight"
Historically speaking this award goes to the loudest film and "The Dark Knight" is just that but the fear here is if "Slumdog Millionaire" is so well loved that it gets the sweep thus stealing the sound categories from "The Dark Knight". I wouldn't be shocked if either wins but I'll stick with the "loudest movie of the year" theory as well as they have to reward this blockbuster in some way other than Heath Ledger. The film deserves 3 or 4 statues.
SOUND MIXING
Will Win - "The Dark Knight"
Should Win - "The Dark Knight"
See above. Usually the same film wins both categories.
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Slumdog Millionaire"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" poses a real threat I think based on the numerous arrangements throughout. It sounds great but then again, so did "Slumdog Millionaire" and it just seems to resonate more for me.
ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win - "Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should Win - "Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire"
It's the only song that sticks with you, in fact, it's hard to shake. That has to count for something. Besides, the experts all say it's going to win so who am I to argue?
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win - "The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306"
Should Win - ?
Seems to be the one getting most of the attention but this category is truly up for grabs with "The Conscience of Nhem En" and "Smile Pinki" also getting a lot of praise.
ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win - "Presto"
Should Win- ?
Made by Pixar, if that even matters, but it seems to be getting the love more than the rest.
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win - "Toyland"
Should Win - ?
Only "The Pig" stands in the way here according to the hype.
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